Kshira Saagar @ DoorDash/Wolt | Data Science Hangout
We were recently joined by Kshira Saagar, Sr Director of Data Science & Analytics, International at Wolt & DoorDash to chat about getting Analytics & Data Science teams a seat at the table - by ensuring that the work done by the DS & Analytics folks impact real-world outcomes and there is credibility & trust built on all sides of an organization to treat Analytics as a True Partner. Speaker bio: Kshira Saagar is currently the Senior Director of International Data & Analytics for Wolt & DoorDash, and has spent 32.1% of his life helping key decision-makers and leaders make smarter decisions using data, and believes that every organization can become truly data-driven. He has been consecutively recognised among the Top 10 Analytics Leaders in Australia, for 2019,'20, '21 & '22. At every place he has worked, working and will work - he likes to go back to the fundamentals, asking people to ask more questions of data and being a tough taskmaster on getting actionable outcomes from data, on all possible occasions. Outside work, Kshira spends a lot of time on advancing data literacy initiatives for high school and undergrad students. ________________________ ► Subscribe to Our Channel Here: https://bit.ly/2TzgcOu Follow Us Here: Website: https://www.posit.co LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/posit-software To join future data science hangouts, add to your calendar here: https://pos.it/dsh (All are welcome! We'd love to see you!) Thanks for hanging out with us!
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Transcript#
This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors.
Hi, everybody. Welcome back to the Data Science Hangout. I'm Rachel. I lead Customer Marketing at Posit. So excited to have you all joining us today.
The Hangout is our open space to hear what's going on in the world of data across different industries, chat about data science leadership, and connect with others who are facing similar things as you. So we get together here every Thursday at the same time, same place. So if you are watching this recording on YouTube at some time in the future and want to join us live, there's details to add it to your calendar below.
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And the other quick note I wanted to share is registration just opened for the POSIT conference in August, and I know there's super early bird pricing for I think just three weeks. So I want to make sure that I let everybody know that here.
Well, with all that, welcome again. I am so excited to be joined by my co-host today, Shira Sagar, Senior Director of Data Science and Analytics International at WOLT and DoorDash. And Shira, to kick us off here, would you be able to introduce yourself and share a little bit about your role and also let us know something you like to do outside of work too?
Well, thank you so much for having me, Rachel. I'm really excited to be able to come in and share what little I know. The first thing I'll say before I get off my mark is I tend to speak very fast. If you don't get it, if nobody here gets it, I'll really try to pause. I tend to speak 245 words a minute, which somebody has measured it for me, thankfully. But if you feel like I'm going too fast, I'm always happy to stop so that everything I say doesn't sound like gobbledygook.
The point is there's no filter between my mind and my mouth, so I tend to say a lot of things and then think, should I have said that? But yeah, hopefully it stays in a safe space.
Everyone who I haven't met, my name is Shira. I take care of analytics and data science for WOLT, which is a part of DoorDash International. It's an international wing of DoorDash. I'm sure all of you know who DoorDash are and what we do. And for those of you who don't, DoorDash is the largest food delivery provider and grocery delivery provider in the US. And so they have an international wing in Europe, in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, in other markets. And so I take care of the analytics and data science team for those markets.
But to be very practical, what does that mean? What we do is the team and I, we act as addition enablers to the point where the way analytics is structured at DoorDash and also at WOLT is how we are not consulted after the fact, which has always been my bugbear. It's not the team which has come and told after everything's done, by the way, we finished doing this thing. But the other way around there, the way the teams are set up from scratch is we are part of the conversation on, do you want to build something new? So the big team for us is being true partners and having a seat at the decision making table.
And that's typically my calling card for, when I try to explain to people what I do, that's different to other analytics I've done before and why I really enjoyed it. What I do here is you get a seat at the table, which is quite hard to get in other places.
What do I like to do outside work? I used to love running. I used to do a lot of marathons and half marathons. I haven't done that in a while, but that's what I like to do outside work. And it brings my mind clear. I think of it as control C and control delete of my brain. And when I run, I try to process, throw everything out.
Getting analytics a seat at the table
I love that you just mentioned making sure that analytics has a seat at the table, right from the start there. Could you tell us a little bit more about really what that means and how you make that happen?
So in essence, what that means is three things, right? One is we make sure that everything that we build as a business, not just the product team or the ops team or whichever team, everything we've built as a business all ladders up to what the business eventually wants to achieve. So we are the truth seekers that make sure that anything that's being built, we keep everybody honest and accountable that these are the right things to build for the business.
Number two, what that also means is we are the team that keeps people accountable in the fact that if we can build something, we can all think it's a great idea, but somebody has to run an experiment to figure out if it's the right idea, if it actually works. The thing with having ideas is anybody can have an idea, but does it actually work and measuring it and keeping everyone honest and accountable and in an unbiased manner, that's the other thing.
But the third and most important part that we do is the fact that we try to bring teams together and connect the dots. So the problem with having a much bigger business is everybody's focused on their part of the business. And this word that gets thrown around with the silo. So nobody connects the dots. I like to think of my role and my team's role as being the people who help connect the dots.
So my favorite character growing up from Sherlock Holmes was not Sherlock Holmes himself, who seemed to always solve the problems. For those of you know, Sherlock's brother, Moria, Mycroft Holmes was the person who could actually connect all the dots and sit in a room and see everything that's going on and understand why something actually happened. So being able to know the second and third are the things and connecting dots. So those are three things that we do.
And that's what we mean by being true partners is we are very helpful to the business in actually making sure what we do is the right thing for us to do.
Example use cases at DoorDash
Sure, I can quite a few things I come to mind. One thing I can talk about is, for example, if you see when you shop for something on DoorDash, you have a carousel that shows you what you need to see instead of if you let people decide what needs to be shown on the carousel, the challenge is there is a very delicate balance between completely personalizing it and going the I don't want to name big brands that are not ours, going through a music subscription platform route where you saw things that slowly become completely irrelevant because it's super personalized.
So every time you open the app and you see a list of restaurants there or a list of stores that you want to shop from, the team has actually thought about a very a solution that can solve for both. It can augment both the personalized side of things and also provide the operators the right set of inputs and the right set of parameters. So we come up with something called the heuristics, which is if you show people X number of carousels, Y number of times and X number of restaurants, there are X percent probability they cannot. So we come up with these heuristics and magic numbers that we provide people that can then be plugged into the personalized platform as inputs from the operator side.
So we the team works on all aspects of the business. So we have three parts of the business. So we have the consumers, people like you and I who shop on DoorDash, then we have the merchants who are the restaurants and the retail partners who sell on DoorDash, and we have the Dasher partners who are the people who actually deliver. So we tackle and touch lives of all of these individual people in different ways, be it what they buy, where they buy from and how they get delivered.
What kind of things do we try to tackle with data? Like I said, in the sum essence of what we try to do is instead of what we realized is a blanket approach does not work. So if you want to come up with a pricing mechanism, having the same pricing mechanism across all countries does not work. And trust me when I say that that also does not work because extreme personalization also does not work because it does not work for the edge cases.
So like I said, the kind of problems we try to solve is how do you take something that's extremely personalized and apply the human element to it by providing the business the right levers to tweak. So a lot of what we do is we do a lot of experimentation created work, which gives us the relationship between an input variable and a set of a lot of input variables instead of output variables. So if, say, conversion is your output variable, what is the relationship to all the input variables? And we do multiple studies, short term, long term and long term holdouts to understand if one person improvement in conversion happens, what does it mean long term for retention, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
Team structure: data scientists vs. machine learning engineers
So we have a separate machine learning department. So we call them DSML or machine learning engineers. So we have separate set of machine learning engineers and they focus on building the software at scale. So these are applications that are going to be touching literally millions and millions of lives in any given day. So we want to build it at scale and for it to work at scale.
Before we get into that stage, we have the data scientists, the analytics side of data scientists who get involved, trying to understand what are the right features to think about, what are the right things we should optimize for and what kind of business metrics can it move? Because we eventually want to be able to plug it back, like I said, into the whole conversation of, yes, we can build this amazing algorithm, but what will it move for the business? And so we start from there and then we think of it as us running the first leg of the relay, building it, seeing what works and then handing it off to the machine learning engineers who can then build it at scale and then optimize it and make it better. So that's how we like to think about it. It's a partnership for how we do it.
Building an analytics culture: DoorDash vs. Wolt
So the honest answer is when I came to DoorDash, it was already established. The people who had established it had made sure that that was part of the secret for why DoorDash grew as it grew and how we would find out what it could do. What we are trying to do, though, is now that DoorDash has acquired Volt and I've now moved from DoorDash to Volt, we're trying to bring the same culture here.
And to your point, what I've seen in the past, I've worked in other companies where you could have a role, you could have the title, but you're often consulted after the fact, where you can't effectively change things. You can only measure things. So you're mostly the measurer. I was mostly the measurer rather than the influencer. So you can measure things and anybody can measure it. But having a say and saying, yep, don't do this or do this or do this because this makes sense. I think that gives you a totally different responsibility and skin in the game. And that makes it all the more fun.
At any given point in time, my understanding is we have three to five thousand different experiments going on at any point in time. And so if you're accumulating some data for multiple weeks, multiple months, you're only talking about tens of thousands of experiments. And so the reason is not to experiment ourselves and increment ourselves into irrelevance. It's about trying to understand truly what works and what doesn't.
The other side of the party also needs to come to the dance and also dance. So the business comes down and says, we think there's an amazing idea, but we want to be really sure this is the right thing to put our money on. Can we experiment with this? We experimented. We see what the increment is. We say we get X percent more. Let's put let's go all in or it doesn't work. Let's try something else. And so I think that's a fun part to be in.
So what we do have is, like I said, the machine learning models are at scale. The last that I remember from a publicly released document was we have around a billion different predictions made at any given point on a given day because we have all the personalization systems, all the dashes who deliver food, all the merchants who show up on the everything is personalized at scale.
Data standardization and spatial analysis
So, unfortunately or fortunately, dusting has never been standardized. So as anybody who's worked in retail, any kind of retail knows that because all of this is manually created, if you imagine how a restaurant sets up a menu, it's a human being at a restaurant setting up a menu for their own restaurant. So there is no standard way that you can get it sorted out. Even the biggest chains don't agree on how the data is going to look like. So we do a lot of work in-house to come up with our own taxonomies.
Retention, reactivation, and experimentation
Talking about the people who get reactivated, we call them reactivated people, the fact that the way we look at reactive people is we understand that not everyone has the need to use the platform the same way that every other person. So some people are going to come back once in a while, go away, then open up the app again, come back again. So we do understand there is a need and potential for people to come that way. So we don't treat them any differently to how we treat others.
What we do want to understand is why does it happen more? So we have a threshold for how much it can happen. If it happens beyond that level, then you want to understand why, or if it goes beyond that level, you want to understand why, but we understand that it is an acceptable threshold of people who will do that. And that's the marketing behavior. People are going to open up once a year or once in six months or so that they're going to do that. But if it gets anywhere outside that threshold is when we start looking into it.
In terms of the other question on logged in, this is logged out. Most of our experimentation is on logged in, you can't shop on a pad, like you can't buy without logging in. So more often than not, anything related to conversion related stuff is logged in. But if you're just about the app usage and things on the app feature, the logged out people mostly, unless they have some kind of other identifier that they can tie them to, they probably won't be considered in the export, because the experiment won't load for those people.
Workflow differences between DoorDash and Wolt
So in terms of the workflow, I think given we are similar industry, same, almost same company, similar industries, the approaches to solving the problem are the same. It's just that where the problem, where we got involved and how we started solving the problem was different. So like I said, the workflow at DoorDash is more around, we think about the problem, everyone comes together. So there's a different workflow, which is, there's a deep dive first. Then it goes into running a lot of smaller experiments. Then after the experiments are done is when we actually start building the feature, then we'll roll the feature out, et cetera, et cetera.
At Walt, it's slightly different where we first build a feature. Then we say, okay, this is the right feature to build. Then we come back and see, did it work or not? And then we do a deep dive, why did it not work? What would you have done differently? So I think then it becomes something of, and there's the sunk cost fallacy with doing things like that, because once you spend time doing something, you probably want to always try to find out if there is some way we can make this work rather than saying if it's the right thing we should build.
So I probably won't try to compare it too much. What I would say is the benefit of the DoorDash approach is not having to waste time and effort on things that don't work, but the loss of that effort is a lot of ideas that actually might not look good on paper might end up doing pretty good because we can never say that we know everything. So if you knew everything and we knew, figured out how things would work, we would not come up with amazing ideas. So I think there is pros and cons of both techniques.
Making an impact on a small team
So this is something I often get asked. I tell them if the work that we do as a team analytics team or data team or data science team, that's not direct. We don't know how it directly changes how the business works. It could be a smallest metric to the most important metric. Then it becomes more of a passion project. I've seen a lot of times where people come up with a great idea and then try to fit the idea into the solution rather than saying, what does the company need to go and then try to put it together.
Typically what I've seen work and that's when we get credibility and a seat at the table because you're actually helping you be part of running the business and not about just measuring the business.
So some businesses run with OKRs. I didn't want to generalize it because not every business runs that way. Some businesses run with OKRs. So if you have OKRs, then making sure that everything you work hits the, what are the capital OKRs, you call them a top OKR. If your business has three things that they want to achieve, which are the missions and are we tying up to the mission exactly, and can you quantify it?
Fraud detection and tooling
So the team, I probably can't talk to the exact techniques as such, but the team does look into chargebacks and trying to find out fraudulent refunds and people exhibiting fraud behavior. It's a combination of tooling. So we have standardized tools that can then flag this. So we don't directly do it. What we do is we feed the tool. It's a graph database. At the end of the day, we flag, we provide the features and the relationship entities that we need into this tool. And then it can then keep flagging for us.
And what the team works on is actively is, are these the right rules to have? And are we losing a lot of revenue from these rules? So instead of identifying consumers, we try to identify policies, come up with policies, which is people who look like this, do like this, maybe stop their transaction. So that's the policy that they would come up with. It's easy to input into a system. Like I said, so the system is smart. The system needs more and more policies. So we can come up with those policies based on what we see.
So very simple. So we use a lot of SQL at the end of the day. It's all about the data we have. And then there is a lot of the analytical work spent on time on trying to understand why something happened to spend on R and Python. So we have our own R and Python. Different people, people are very free to use whatever notebooks they want or work pages they want.
When you start building models, we have our own, so we can build models. We can deploy models and deploy stuff. We have our own machine learning platform in-house, which can take a Python package and then make it into the end point. And then that can start feeding anybody who queries it with a recommendation output to visualize. We have our own, we have multiple visualization platforms, as you can imagine, as any big business does.
And the beauty is everybody who has at doordash.com or at volt.com email pretty much has access to almost half of all the images, all the dashboards can actually play with almost all the workbenches and also tweak the queries. So we've built it intentionally in a way where nobody has to feel limited because they don't work in the analytics team. Everybody can get a query as long as they know how to run a query and see what they need to see, and they can do it.
Open sourcing and the DoorDash blog
So I think it's good on a multiple fronts. One front is for the team to talk for the great work they do. What we've always gotten from the blogs are people who interested in those kinds of things, come to us and say a bread is productive, can be better. So there's no better way to get feedback on what you do than by sharing it more and more widely rather than keeping it closed.
So if you want to know more about our Sibyl platform, which is a machine learning platform, want to know more about our data science platform or how we run experimentation or an experimentation platform, which is also completely built from ground up, which is called Curie, you can go to Curie and write DoorDash and you can get a blog and that talks a lot about it. And we've had people reach out and provide product feature ideas and also recommendations and improvements on how we can experiment from that.
Surprising insights from data
So I can talk about a very unique use case, right. And it's something I often bring up. So in the U S and all of you in the, in the most fear in the U S you'd realize that if something is late, you get pissed off. You're like, don't be late, be on time or be early. If a food is supposed to come at 35 minutes, you want it to be on 34 minutes, 36. It's fine, 36, but you don't have to be 40 minutes. You really hate it.
So what we try to do is all our algorithms or models are set to deliver things earlier than what we promised. That's that's inside. That's a common thing. What we don't realize is the world is a very diverse place and each culture is very unique. So when you try to build something similar, roll it out in Japan, we realized that people really were pissed off, not by lateness, but by early. So the earlier we came in, the more consumers are coming back.
We were quite surprised because, um, consumers are really pissed off by because they wanted us to be on time. A slightly later, but never early because of who these people are and how they were shopping. They were shopping for us and they were coming home and they didn't want to put it outside, but that's the kind of thing when you assume that something is true and then try to apply it 29, 30 countries, then you get caught out. And so then we start bringing in the lens of, are we doing the right thing by this country? And so going to that level of country level detail, then it's very interesting.
So when you try to build something similar, roll it out in Japan, we realized that people really were pissed off, not by lateness, but by early.
Hypothesis testing and data quality
Because like I mentioned, maybe I quickly ran through it because we only roll out experiments and experimental features to people who are logged in, we are able to identify who these people are in some way. Uh, and all our features, it doesn't matter. We don't know who their age or name or gender, any of this stuff. We just know who, what kind of behaviors they exhibit. And so we are able to identify them as an individual unit block.
Those kinds of audiences are naturally excluded from the experimental sample because we don't know anything about them, or we might get erroneous data because we can't track them properly. Uh, but in other ways we do have bias reduction techniques, or we have bias identification techniques, um, before the whole experiment is automated. And so that's how we do it.
Collaboration between data science and the business
Um, so it, like I said, the, we are driven by the business to actually do things. So the fundamental reason why we exist and what we do is pretty clear for us. The reason we exist as a team and what we do is to make sure that we are investing in the right things. We're putting money in the right places and we're going after the right target. So to know that, um, the only way to learn it is by experimenting.
The one thing I really love is how our CEO often talks about it is we read these experiments, we read these documents where people talk about things that they say, oh, we experimented this and we failed and we feel bad about it. And then his comment would be, if you didn't expect, that's the whole point of experiments. It's to fail and to learn things. If you didn't fail, you would never learn. So it's that culture is built in, in the business.
And so what happens is the business comes to us and says, we want to build this new, go to a new market or build this new product or build this new feature or whatever it is, um, let's do it in an incremental fashion and let's measure along the way and make sure if it's the right thing to do, uh, if it's useless, let's throw it out the window. If it's great, let's evolve it.
Tools and decision-making culture
Um, so we do use, um, I don't think we have a lot of Microsoft products as such. There's nobody who does not use Excel, but we don't use a lot of the other things. So all our presentations are on Google slides. We do a lot of the document culture. So everything is written down. So anything that you need to make a decision on, be it an experimental feature or be it a business decision, everything is written down and somebody comments on the talk and says if it's the right thing to do and if it's the right.
Um, and we use, uh, Looker from Google, which is the visualization platform to share dashboards and stuff like that. But dashboards are best dashboards. You know, the decisions are made on a document, uh, be it investing money in a place. We're shutting down a feature or being that pickup feature. Everyone writes up an experimental doc, um, talk about what the feedback has been or what the output has been. And then people ask questions there. And then the decision is made there in the document on what that's what we do.
Handling ambiguous data signals
So data quality and lineage is a massive thing for us. We spend a lot of time and effort on understanding how we track something, where it is tracked from, what is the coverage for it? Uh, we have monitors for it. So we know at any point in time, what is the quality of our data? Um, and because like I said, we're extremely obsessed with metrics. Uh, even if something moves by a couple of basis points, you know, immediately, if it's a moment due to us, due to the market or due to the data being wrong.
On external data, we think that we don't have control over example, market share data that we get, or app download data from download partners and stuff like that. The only way we provide credibility to it is by trying to triangulate it with something else, which is one other external data and also our in-house internal data, try to find a proxy for it and then seeing if that all makes sense. So we never trust anything until we can triangulate it. And we know for sure that makes sense.
Career advice: being vocal about your work
Um, so the one thing that I've, I've heard from, and so this is completely probably tangential to what we're talking about is if we don't talk about the work we do, nobody knows what it is. And so I've taken that. So a lot of times we do some amazing, this is something I tell my team, you do some amazing work, but you don't want to talk to anyone about it because you assume people automatically figure out about your work, come understand what it is, and then appreciate you for it. That doesn't happen.
And so at scale, especially if you have a great idea, what we do believe in is you have to be vocal about your idea and talk about why that makes sense, what is the great project you've done, why, how is it impacting the business if we don't do it? Um, and you just worry that nobody appreciates what you do or things don't happen for yourself that, um, passive, uh, credibility never happens. It needs to, you need to take an active foot in it. It's what I've been told. I was advised. I've taken it to heart and that's what I tell my team.
And so at scale, especially if you have a great idea, what we do believe in is you have to be vocal about your idea and talk about why that makes sense, what is the great project you've done, why, how is it impacting the business if we don't do it?
So we create forums for the team. So the teams can come share their ideas, the things that they've done. We push our teams to be vocal about things that they find are wrong. If they see something, we ask them to say something and fix it. And so there is a lot of effort on, um, being vocal about the work and being in the data analytics space where everyone likes to be with their stuff.
So one thing is we do create, we do make sure that the work that the team does is incredibly technical and complicated. So instead of boring the team with boring everyone about, we did the CB test and we saw this, it was like, no. So if you do this, you get X back and trying to translate that, translate math into English is what I do. And I try to teach the team, but how do you translate your math into English?
Keeping up with the latest trends
So the one thing I take as a true advantage of working with amazing people is everyone's trying to push themselves constantly. So people take an active interest in one particular topic and then they take it upon themselves to either run a forum or bring a topic or work with the academies. For example, I can talk about the experimentation topic. The extremely obsessive experimentation here. And there's only so much you can do with experimentation. So after a point, you need to understand how to improve it with better variable reduction techniques.
So what the team does is they go away, work with, um, professors from academia who also are also searching on the topic, bring them in, help them talk to us about a particular area that everyone's solving and talk about. So what the team does is they take extreme interest in these topics. And so each person has a passion project. So causal inference is a massive thing here because everyone likes to know why something happens. We all live for that. And so there is a group of people who always, every fortnight bring an interesting causal inference topic, either themselves or from outside.
Book recommendation
Um, at the funny thing that I often recommend one book completely invisible women book is what I typically recommend. Um, and the reason I recommend invisible women is it's talks about, um, it talks about something that's real in our lives and uses data as an example of how we often miss the other 50% of people in our, in our world and how the world is not designed for them. And I often use it as an example of how we make wrong decisions for the majority or the wrong decision for the assumed majority, and therefore don't make that addition for the business. So that's a book I would recommend. So it's not a book. It's a book about women empowerment that everybody should read, but it's also about how data you can use data to actually make a case for making the world a better.
Community and peer learning within the team
So they're definitely, so the beauty is if you ask somebody a question, you don't get an one word answer. More often than not, you get, this is how I looked at it. This is how I solved it. These are the five things you can look at it. So you get the whole thing. So you don't feel like. So the people know when they ask for help, they will get help.
And I think you've definitely built a great community of folks here and be it within DoorDash or DoorDash to Walt. So if somebody from Walt reaches a thing, they're trying to think of building this thing, what do you do? And you won't get a one word or a one sentence answer. You'd pretty much get like a six paragraph answer about everything. Somebody's filled all the documentary.
Does it happen instantly? Maybe not, but when it does happen, you do get all the help you need. So that's been good. And so people do fall back on each other to peer reviews, to review their work, to have critics of the things that they do, or also get a third set of eyes that look into it.
So one thing we do is we have, we have artifacts that people can share. People do share once every six to eight weeks, what are they working on? So, like I said, this is a forum for every team to come and every small team of eight to 10 people to come share what they're working on. So that really helps anyone else who really wants to take an interest in it to come read. As leaders in the business, we all read almost all the teams once in six to eight weeks, sort of things that they work on and then get to ask questions and engage in it.
Thank you so much, Shira, for taking the time to join us today and sharing your insights and experience. And thank you all for the great questions.